Kokaz,Karolin, and Peter Rogers. Urban Transportation Planning for Air Quality Management - The Role of Social and Economic Costs in Welfare Maximization of Mobility Choice: A Case Study in Delhi, India. 2002.
Delhi is experiencing rapid spatial and population growth, and this will lead to an estimated 13 million vehicles in Delhi in 2020. Automobile emissions has become the fasting increasing source of urban air pollution. To aid in transportation design and decisions to accommodate these facts, this study uses a mathematical model to estimate the most effective transportation mix to meet the projected vehicle demand, while satisfying environmental goals, reducing congestion levels, etc, at the minimum cost.
2. Where do the authors work, and what are their areas of expertise? Note any other publications by the authors with relevance to the 6Cities project.
Karolin Kokaz and Peter Rogers were both in the Division of Engineering and Applied Studies at Harvard University at the time of the study, Kokaz as a PhD candidate and Rogers as a professor.
In 2001, a year before this study, both authors, along with an environmental specialist from the World Bank and another Harvard professor, published a report titled "A Simulation Analysis of Transportation Policies on Health and Environment in Delhi, India." This paper worked to produce a vehicular air pollution information system to provide insight into the key parameters of the transport system of Delhi, and is referenced in the more recent paper.
3. What are the main findings or arguments presented in the article or report?
The results of the model suggest a transportation system dominated by buses.
To meet the transport demand with the bus scenario an extensive light rail network with some utilization of subways is necessary.
In all optimization cases, cleaner vehicle technologies is required due to the emissions reduction requirements. The most cost effective technologies are CNG taxis, hybrid buses and trucks, electric, LPG, and CNG autorickshaws, gasoline and CNG cars, and ethanol, LPG, and CNG two wheelers.
Although technological improvements are necessary, effects from traffic congestion and reduced speed are more significant.
Addition of social costs to the equations resulted in the optimization model including the use of cleaner vehicle technologies and consequently lower health costs.
4. Describe at least three ways that the argument is supported.
Points to current flaws in current transportation planning in Delhi to establish a need for this model and the actions it suggests.
Multiple institutions in the city are responsible for urban transport planning, but there are uncertainties as to which organization is responsible for what, and there is no efficient approval system for transportation projects.
There is very little public data provided by these organizations, allowing for no transparency in how transportation decisions are made.
The current public transportation system is inadequate. It is only comprised of buses and has poorly planned routes.
Five railroads and nine roads, of which five are national highways, intersect in Delhi, leading to extreme congestion.
Discusses severity of air quality issues in the city.
In 1995, Delhi was named one of the top ten most polluted cities in the world, and was fourth worst for particulate matter.
Particulate pollution was reported to kill 1 person per hours in 1995 (I think they attend to mean globally- source link to no longer exists so cannot check)
An average car in India weighs about 800kg and emits 5 times its weight of CO2 in one year.
About 14% of CO2 emissions come from the transportation sector in India, with an increasing trend.
More than 60 case combinations were run in the optimization model. 10 different cases are outlined in the report for cross comparison, and the results of each are discussed in depth.
5. What three (or more) quotes capture the message of the article or report?
"Automobile emissions are the most rapidly growing source of urban air pollution in most of these developing cities. These emissions contribute to a disproportionate amount of exposures and therefore result in very high health damages. Hence it is much more cost-effective to control vehicular emissions rather than industrial emissions in urban areas (4). This paper, therefore, focuses on urban transportation planning for air quality management at a macro level with Delhi as the case study" (pg 3).
"Running a simulation model is a good way of investigating specific policies and control options. Nevertheless, optimization involves less repetitive work and is able to consider a list of options at the same time and produces the most cost-effective combination. The results of the optimization runs suggest a transportation system dominated by buses. Although buses are less than 4% of total motor vehicles they will satisfy more than 80% of the PKM demand in 2020. When buses are limited many more vehicles in all the other modes are required to meet the transport demand" (pg 12).
"The very rapid growth observed in the transportation sector in most of the developing countries has made the planning and managing of these systems very difficult. But since the development is at a rather early stage all available options need to be considered very carefully with also learning from mistakes and success stories from other more developed countries. The key is trying to move people efficiently and as a start some simple traffic management options can attain a relatively quick and easy reduction of the congestion in Delhi. Also, the large increase in the number of buses suggested by these models speaks the need for a transport system with dedicated bus lanes and bus priorities, maybe such as the case in Curitiba, Brazil."
Good example of the importance of understanding different methods internationally, meshing well with our 6 cities study.
6. What were the methods, tools and/or data used to produce the claims or arguments made in the article or report?
In Kokaz and Roger's previous study mentioned in question 2, a spreadsheet simulation model was developed.
"Using current growth rates of vehicles, retirement age prerequisites, strict emissions standards, fuel efficiency and fuel quality requirements, [the program] projects the number of vehicles, average vehicle fuel efficiencies (km/lt), average vehicle emission factors (g/km), age distribution of vehicles in each year, vehicle kilometers traveled by each mode in each year, fuel consumption, and emissions of pollutants (CO, NOx, HC, Pb, TSP, PM10, SO2, CO2)." pg 6
As of 2000, Delhi was under Euro II standards for new cars.The model assumes Euro III standards will be implemented in Delhi by 2005, and Euro IV for 2015.
Technology improvements in vehicle engine design and fuel qualities are also assumed to meet the mandatory emissions standards and fuel efficiencies.
This model made the estimates for vehicles in Delhi by 2020 (approximately 13.5 million), as well as estimates on emissions and fuel consumption, that were used in the current study.
A mathematical model was used to minimize total costs (fuel costs, vehicle costs and their operations and maintenance costs (OM), infrastructure costs, and traffic control options costs) and another equation on the health damages and value of time (vehicle delay due to congestion and low speeds).
pedestrian travel was calculated outside the model and subtracted from the total transport demand
contained 9 different engine technologies and fuel types: gasoline, diesel, ethanol, methanol, natural gas (CNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), electric, hybrid electric, hydrogen fuel cells
model constraints: emissions limits for air quality improvements and reduction of health impacts, improvement of system and fuel efficiencies, a budget constraint for government spending on infrastructure investments and public transportation, and most the travel demand constraint (future PKM demand- otherwise known as passenger-kilometers, the amount of kilometers traveled in total by all passengers)
traffic control options included in the model:
advanced and clean vehicle technologies and alternative fuels
emissions standards, fuel quality, and fuel efficiency requirements
investments in rail infrastructure
traffic management options, i.e. arranging traffic direction according to flows, putting traffic signals and policemen to arrange traffic, and synchronization of traffic lights
building inspection and maintenance stations for vehicle testing
increasing parking costs, car and taxi occupancy, use of telecommuting, and fuel taxes
reduction of altnerative fuel prices by government subsidies
The optimization model was then run for the various cases. These cases included minimizing total costs or maximizing welfare, inclusion or exclusion of the calculated social costs, inclusion or exclusion of certain traffic control options, with or without a limited government budget spending for the transport sector, and with a limited number of buses for some cases.
7. How (if at all) are health disparities or other equity issues addressed in the article or report?
It is mentioned that India is claimed to have 1% of all the world's vehicles, with most of these vehicles being located in urban centers. The authors point out that this results in disproportional amount of exposures, leading to serious health affects. This is used in the introduction of the report to address health disparities as a major motivation for this study.
Furthermore, the optimization factors in health damages, making a direct connection between air pollution and extensive health costs.
8. Where has this article or report been referenced or discussed? (In some journals, you can see this in a sidebar.)
A transportation report conducted in China titled "Green transportation planning and regional sustainable development within metropolitan regions: The role of traffic pollutant inventory in decision making," which was published in the International Journal of Physical Sciences in 2011, references this article. The study is referenced as a research initiative, motivated by public health concerns as pollution and traffic increase in metropolitan areas, to implement transportation strategies to reduce air pollution. source
Referenced by a study titled "Cost estimates for road congestion in Delhi: projections and recommendations." This report investigates air pollution costs, costs due to accidents, and productivity loss.
9. Can you learn anything from the article or report’s bibliography that tells us something about how the article or report was produced?
Kokaz and Rogers reference their previous study for the use of the spreadsheet simulation. The first study was likely produced with the application within this study already planned.
A large majority of the cited studies originate in India, and many specifically in Delhi. Considering this study was produced in the US, not many American sources were used.
A study was cited by the World Bank titled "China's Strategies for Controlling Motor Vehicle Emissions: Summary Report." Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep, one of the authors in Kokaz and Roger's initial study, is an environmental specialist for the World Bank. This suggests a research tie between Harvard and the World Bank.
An acknowledgement at the end of the report states that this report is part of a project on Transportation, Land use and the Environment in India funded by a grant from the Ford Motor Company and the Harvard University Center for Environment.
10. What three points, details or references from the text did you follow up on to advance your understanding of how air pollution science has been produced and used in governance and education in different settings?
The conclusion reported that a final aim of Harvard's project on India is to combine the simulation and optimization models in this report with models for future land use planning, GIS models for data handling and visual representations, and use of satellite remote sensing for ground level PM2.5 monitoring. The intention of this was to create a tool to assist policy makers in urban transport planning. This seemed like a noteworthy intersection of data, technology, and governance, but I was unable to find a final report on Harvard's project or any resources bringing this idea to completion.
While attempting to research this, I came across a website on Sumeete Srinivasan, who also worked on Harvard's project on Transportation, Land use and Environment in India. She has published transportation studies on Delhi and Chennai, India, as well as several reports on China. She currently has a report under review titled "A Spatial Analysis of Air Quality, Transportation and Urbanization Characteristics: Comparing China and India" which sounds particurally of interest for our 6 cities research. source
Through Srinivasan's website, I found a website on the Harvard China Project, which is described as "an interdisciplinary, collaborative research program focused on China's atmosphere environment." This would be a good source to pass onto the China group. source
2. Where do the authors work, and what are their areas of expertise? Note any other publications by the authors with relevance to the 6Cities project.
3. What are the main findings or arguments presented in the article or report?
4. Describe at least three ways that the argument is supported.
5. What three (or more) quotes capture the message of the article or report?
6. What were the methods, tools and/or data used to produce the claims or arguments made in the article or report?
7. How (if at all) are health disparities or other equity issues addressed in the article or report?
8. Where has this article or report been referenced or discussed? (In some journals, you can see this in a sidebar.)
9. Can you learn anything from the article or report’s bibliography that tells us something about how the article or report was produced?
10. What three points, details or references from the text did you follow up on to advance your understanding of how air pollution science has been produced and used in governance and education in different settings?