What two (or more) quotes capture the message of the article?
"Philadelphia would be among the cities with the most to lose if carbon reductions weren’t carried out globally, the researchers say. The difference between the two carbon levels is exceeded only by a handful of other low-lying cities including Miami, New York, and Virginia Beach."
"Philadelphia is among the most sensitive cities to cuts in carbon emissions because it has a limited population in the lowest-lying areas that would be immediately affected by sea-level rise but has a much higher degree of development in adjoining zones that could be spared the flooding if big cuts in carbon emissions were made, said Strauss."
"“The results offer a new way to compare different emissions scenarios or policies and suggest that the long-term viability of hundreds of coastal municipalities and land currently inhabited by tens of millions of persons hang in the balance,” the paper says."
"Although the projections suggest that sharp carbon emissions could help cities like Philadelphia prevent the worst of future flooding, the report says that carbon emissions to date have already locked in some degree of inundation. "
What is the main point of the article, and how is it supported?
A study found that Philadelphia is #8 on the list of U.S. cities that would be most benefited by reduction in carbon emissions. 156,000 people reside in areas that will be covered in water by 2100 based on ice melting predictions, if the current rate of carbon emissions stays constant. That number could minimize to 14,000 people, "if 'massive and prolonged' carbon emission cuts were made," according to the research results.
Difference between the best and worst case situations is the well-being of 142,000 total people.
The lowest level regions have very little residents, but the middle-range regions are developing and growing.
Another low-lying city is Boston, which has a small difference between the people effected by the rising sea-level
What actors (individuals or organizations) are referred to? (Provide names and short descriptions.)
Ben Strauss
VP of the Sea Level and Climate Impacts department of Climate Central
Explained the findings of the research
Climate Central
Conducted the study: Estimated the number residents in US cities affected by the sea level ascent, in 2100. Tested "under four different carbon-emission scenarios."
By 2100: global increase of 3.3 degrees Celcius, 7.1 m sea-level rise (SLR)
"extreme cuts" = dramatic switch to renewable energy sources or "nuclear power," RCP = 2.6
Long term: "locked in" 2.4 m SLR globally
Long term is not a defined time set because the rate of melting includes more uncertainties and factors than the total volume of melting.
Michael Man
At Pennsylvania State University, director of Earth Systems Science Center
Research implies that there is little faith for the West Antarctic ice sheet to stay in tact, and could add 12 to 14 feet SLR.
Disputes that this study underestimates the sea level rise because it doesn't take into account future stronger storms caused by climate change. "A storm of the magnitude of Sandy, previously expected to hit only once in 3,000 years, can now be expected once a century, he said."
This is part of a debate on global warming, if it really causes stronger storms.
What kind of causation or responsibility is argued or implied in the article?
Climate change and excess fossil fuel use (CO2 production) drive the problems written about in the article. Preventative action called is energy source change.
How (if at all) are health disparities or other equity issues addressed in the article or report?
The inequities are drawn between areas that are not predicted to be flooded, and areas that are predicted to be flooded. Cities that have large populations living in low areas will take the greatest hit when the sea level continues to rise. Cities that have small populations living in low areas, but dense populations in higher elevations have a lot more to lose if carbon emissions are not reduced, if our habits are not altered to protect the environment and living area of many people.
What three points, details or references from the article did you follow up on to advance your understanding of the issued and actors described in the article?
Climate Central Organization
NGO
Conduct research about climate change causes and effects, alert the public about it.
"No Advocacy — We advance no specific policy, legislation, or technology to address climate change. We are scrupulously non-partisan."
Claim to not push for policy: however, this study definitely is pushing for change in governance.
"Philadelphia currently see 29 days above 90°F but will average over 58 a year by 2041-2060 and more than 89 a year by 2080-2099 under the present trajectory; only under the lowest-emissions scenario will the number of days above 90°F remain unchanged."
Full citation and abstract? Benjamin H. Strauss, et. al., " Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level," Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (September 18, 2015), Accessed November 1, 2015, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1511186112.
Abstract:
The research was preformed to analyze how much of the US coastal populations will be affected by the sea-level rise effect of climate change. The temperature, SLR and population data were analyzed for municipalities. One case studied the effects of the global warming due to the emissions, not considering the"locked in" and allegedly inevitable effect of the damage of the West Antarctic glaciers. The other case incorporated this effect producing a more dramatic result. Varied levels of carbon emission cuts and their effects on cities' predicted sea level rise are evaluated. The future high tide levels determined by this data push for change in carbon emissions, to lower the sea level rise prediction and ease the effect of climate change on coastal cities. Action now and in the future on anthropogenic sources of carbon can literally shape the United States. The impact of changing the rate of carbon emissions on the welfare of many communities is explicitly shown, through the decrease in populations affected by the rising sea level as carbon emissions are reduced.
Where do the authors work, and what are their areas of expertise? Note any other publications by the authors with relevance to the 6Cities project.
Benjamin Strauss
Works at Climate Central
Scott Kulp
Works at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany)
Anders Leverman
Works at Physics Institute of Potsdam University (Germany)
What are the main findings or arguments presented in the article or report?
Without considering the WAIS collapse (baseline), 414 cities in the US will have high tide lines where over 50% of the population lives below.
The triggered case study (considering the WAIS collapse) found 604 cities with the same situation.
In the case of no changes and increased emissions:
"through 2100 (RCP 8.5) lead to similar final results under either Antarctic case, with 1,544 or 1,596 municipalities, respectively, committed at 50% (union of confidence intervals, 1,185–1,825), affecting land that is home to current populations of 26.3 or 27.4 million people (union of intervals 20.6–32.1 million)"
Long term predictions become balanced because at that point the impact of the high emissions on the normal glacial melting is equivalent to the impact of the WAIS.
In the case of massive decreases in carbon emissions:
"can lead to the avoidance of commitment for nearly 900 US municipalities, and, more broadly, for land that is home to 15.8 million people in the baseline case, using central estimates, and for nearly 400 municipalities and land that is home for 6.6 million people assuming WAIS collapse"
There is a massive difference in the number of municipalities under the high tide line, by only decreasing carbon emissions a little (by changing from RCP 8.5 to RCP 6.0).
Florida, California, Louisiana, and New York have the most people living in danger of their homes being below the high tide line.
Describe at least three ways that the argument is supported.
The argument is supported with the comparison of intensity of carbon cuts (from zero cuts to drastic) on the sea-level rise, and therefore community impact. The view on how different amounts of carbon reduction efforts affect a city display what events policy makers can prevent and lessen.
The research referenced also supports the argument that carbon emissions lead to temperature change and then sea level rise.
The descriptive tables with municipalities listed, with their population, estimated emissions, 'commitment year,' and committed SLR.
What three (or more) quotes capture the message of the article or report?
"Paleontological records indicate that global mean sea level is highly sensitive to temperature (7) and that ice sheets, the most important contributors to large-magnitude sea-level change, can respond to warming on century time scales (8), while models suggest ice sheets require millennia to approach equilibrium (9). Accordingly, sustained temperature increases from current emissions are expected to translate to long-term sea-level rise (SLR)."
"Here we develop relationships between cumulative carbon emissions and longterm sea-level commitment and explore implications for the future of coastal developments in the United States. The results offer a new way to compare different emissions scenarios or policies and suggest that the long-term viability of hundreds of coastal municipalities and land currently inhabited by tens of millions of persons hang in the balance"
"For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts."
"Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. "
What were the methods, tools and/or data used to produce the claims or arguments made in the article or report?
"Committed" or "locked in" warming during a year: unavoidable warming/sea level rise based on the year's human produced carbon emissions and their assessed long-term impact, with or without intervention by carbon cuts.
To approximate temperature rise:
Linear relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise: "use 0.7–2.0 °C [rise per 1,000 gigatons of carbon], the 90% likely range from Gillett et al."
RCP: representative concentration pathways of carbon emissions (from the Gillett paper as well)
"approximate cumulative emissions through 2015 as 560 GtC based on historical values and forecasts under RCP 8.5 (21, 22); for a special case we add 199 GtC to this total to represent the future expectation of emissions already implicit in the current global energy infrastructure (23)."
To approximate sea-level rise (SLR):
used methods by Levermann, et. al.
Total SLR from "(i) ocean thermal expansion, based on six coupled climate models; (ii) mountain glacier and ice cap melting, based on surface mass balance and simplified ice dynamic models; (iii) Greenland ice sheet decay, based on a coupled regional climate model and ice sheet dynamic model; and (iv) Antarctic ice sheet decay, based on a continental-scale model parameterizing grounding line ice flux in relation to temperature."
Adjustments to point iv, to have Antarctic ice melting relate to the temperature rise, T ( average global temperature rise), produces the lowest melted Antarctic volume for temperature increases of T or higher.
To approximate glacier (WAIS) "collapse":
WAIS = West Antarctic Ice Sheet, this study focuses on Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers
"The baseline case includes the possibility of WAIS instability, depending upon emissions and warming; the triggered case differs only in enforcing collapse under any scenario at some time within Levermann et al.’s (10) 2,000-y envelope."
Triggered: "employs a minor modification of the warming–SLR relationship"
Baseline: "makes a major adjustment to explore an important possibility suggested by recent research, by assuming that an inevitable collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) already has been set in motion"
To approximate effects on the communities:
Spatial analysis of the SLR
Find the high tide level, find the lines of elevation at which 25%, 50% and 100% of the population lives.
Include topography and population numbers in analysis
How (if at all) are health disparities or other equity issues addressed in the article or report?
The health disparity issue addressed in this article is the difference in welfare between people who live in low-level, coastal areas and those who do not. The coastal communities and industries are "up to 4.6% of the global population and 9.3% of annual global gross domestic product [that will be threatened] with annual flooding by 2100 in the absence of adaptive measures."
An equity problem within the report is the census data about those who live/work in these coastal regions. The data now does not properly address who will be affected by 2100. However, it represents how much those people's lives would be impacted if carbon cuts were not made and if they were not able to relocate.
Where has this article or report been referenced or discussed? (In some journals, you can see this in a sidebar.)
I have seen this study discussed in the context of news for specific cities, like New Orleans, NYC, and Miami. Most citations are in news sources and blogs. The news articles describe the impact of a specific city or the impact on the US as a whole.
Can you learn anything from the article or report’s bibliography that tells us something about how the article or report was produced?
Cited are many reports on climate change, from the US and UK.
Many reports on Antarctica and Greenland, and their melting glaciers
Others report on other modeling efforts of sea level rise.
Interesting reference: "Levermann et al. (10) found a roughly linear global mean sealevel increase of 2.3 m per 1 °C warming within a time-envelope of the next 2,000 [years]"
The efforts in this study were to find the short term and long term effects of the warming earth specifically on coastal areas.
What three points, details or references from the text did you follow up on to advance your understanding of how air pollution science has been produced and used in governance and education in different settings?
Part of West Antarctica that "flows," therefore "deforms" itself.
"Current computer models do not include the physics necessary to simulate this process, and observations do not provide guidance, so predictions as to its rate of retreat remain uncertain."
Possibly the incorporation of WAIS collapse in this research was inaccurate.
Does the article provide information or perspective on any of the thematics already identified as important for the 6Cities project?
Increasingly, researchers themselves are calling for specific policies and interventions.
Climate Central performed research to analyze how much of the US coastal populations will be affected by the sea-level rise effect of climate change. The temperature, SLR and population data were analyzed for municipalities. One case studied the effects of the global warming due to the emissions, not considering the"locked in" and allegedly inevitable effect of the damage of the West Antarctic glaciers. The other case incorporated this effect producing a more dramatic result. Varied levels of carbon emission cuts and their effects on cities' predicted sea level rise are evaluated. The future high tide levels determined by this data push for change in carbon emissions, to lower the sea level rise prediction and ease the effect of climate change on coastal cities. Action now and in the future on anthropogenic sources of carbon can literally shape the United States. The impact of changing the rate of carbon emissions on the welfare of many communities is explicitly shown, through the decrease in populations affected by the rising sea level as carbon emissions are reduced (Strauss 2015). Philadelphia is #8 on the list of U.S. cities that would be most benefited by reduction in carbon emissions. 156,000 people reside in areas that will be covered in water by 2100 based on ice melting predictions, if the current rate of carbon emissions stays constant. That number could minimize to 14,000 people, "if 'massive and prolonged' carbon emission cuts were made," according to the research results. The lowest level regions have very few residents, but the middle-range regions are developing and growing (Hurdle 2015). Therefore, carbon reductions now can make an impact in the lives of those living and working in those middle-range elevations of Philadelphia.
Across sites, there is growing recognition of a need to improve understanding of air pollution, health impacts, and mitigation opportunities at the neighborhood level.
The information above I believe can be applied to this bullet point as well.
Jon Hurdle, "Philadephia has much to lose if drastic, global carbon reductions aren't made, study says," NPR State Impact Pennsylvania, October 12, 2015, Accessed November 1, 2015, https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2015/10/12/philadelphia-could-avoid-some-sea-level-rise-under-big-carbon-cuts-study-says/.
What two (or more) quotes capture the message of the article?
- "Philadelphia would be among the cities with the most to lose if carbon reductions weren’t carried out globally, the researchers say. The difference between the two carbon levels is exceeded only by a handful of other low-lying cities including Miami, New York, and Virginia Beach."
- "Philadelphia is among the most sensitive cities to cuts in carbon emissions because it has a limited population in the lowest-lying areas that would be immediately affected by sea-level rise but has a much higher degree of development in adjoining zones that could be spared the flooding if big cuts in carbon emissions were made, said Strauss."
- "“The results offer a new way to compare different emissions scenarios or policies and suggest that the long-term viability of hundreds of coastal municipalities and land currently inhabited by tens of millions of persons hang in the balance,” the paper says."
- "Although the projections suggest that sharp carbon emissions could help cities like Philadelphia prevent the worst of future flooding, the report says that carbon emissions to date have already locked in some degree of inundation. "
What is the main point of the article, and how is it supported?- A study found that Philadelphia is #8 on the list of U.S. cities that would be most benefited by reduction in carbon emissions. 156,000 people reside in areas that will be covered in water by 2100 based on ice melting predictions, if the current rate of carbon emissions stays constant. That number could minimize to 14,000 people, "if 'massive and prolonged' carbon emission cuts were made," according to the research results.
- Difference between the best and worst case situations is the well-being of 142,000 total people.
- The lowest level regions have very little residents, but the middle-range regions are developing and growing.
- Another low-lying city is Boston, which has a small difference between the people effected by the rising sea-level
What actors (individuals or organizations) are referred to? (Provide names and short descriptions.)- Ben Strauss
- VP of the Sea Level and Climate Impacts department of Climate Central
- Explained the findings of the research
- Climate Central
- Conducted the study: Estimated the number residents in US cities affected by the sea level ascent, in 2100. Tested "under four different carbon-emission scenarios."
- Carbon-emission scenarios = Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
- "unchecked pollution" = no changes, RCP = 8.5
- By 2100: global increase of 3.3 degrees Celcius, 7.1 m sea-level rise (SLR)
- "extreme cuts" = dramatic switch to renewable energy sources or "nuclear power," RCP = 2.6
- Long term: "locked in" 2.4 m SLR globally
- Long term is not a defined time set because the rate of melting includes more uncertainties and factors than the total volume of melting.
- Michael Man
- At Pennsylvania State University, director of Earth Systems Science Center
- Research implies that there is little faith for the West Antarctic ice sheet to stay in tact, and could add 12 to 14 feet SLR.
- Disputes that this study underestimates the sea level rise because it doesn't take into account future stronger storms caused by climate change. "A storm of the magnitude of Sandy, previously expected to hit only once in 3,000 years, can now be expected once a century, he said."
- This is part of a debate on global warming, if it really causes stronger storms.
What kind of causation or responsibility is argued or implied in the article?- Climate change and excess fossil fuel use (CO2 production) drive the problems written about in the article. Preventative action called is energy source change.
How (if at all) are health disparities or other equity issues addressed in the article or report?- The inequities are drawn between areas that are not predicted to be flooded, and areas that are predicted to be flooded. Cities that have large populations living in low areas will take the greatest hit when the sea level continues to rise. Cities that have small populations living in low areas, but dense populations in higher elevations have a lot more to lose if carbon emissions are not reduced, if our habits are not altered to protect the environment and living area of many people.
What three points, details or references from the article did you follow up on to advance your understanding of the issued and actors described in the article?Full citation and abstract?
Benjamin H. Strauss, et. al., " Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level," Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (September 18, 2015), Accessed November 1, 2015, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1511186112.
Abstract:
The research was preformed to analyze how much of the US coastal populations will be affected by the sea-level rise effect of climate change. The temperature, SLR and population data were analyzed for municipalities. One case studied the effects of the global warming due to the emissions, not considering the"locked in" and allegedly inevitable effect of the damage of the West Antarctic glaciers. The other case incorporated this effect producing a more dramatic result. Varied levels of carbon emission cuts and their effects on cities' predicted sea level rise are evaluated. The future high tide levels determined by this data push for change in carbon emissions, to lower the sea level rise prediction and ease the effect of climate change on coastal cities. Action now and in the future on anthropogenic sources of carbon can literally shape the United States. The impact of changing the rate of carbon emissions on the welfare of many communities is explicitly shown, through the decrease in populations affected by the rising sea level as carbon emissions are reduced.
Where do the authors work, and what are their areas of expertise? Note any other publications by the authors with relevance to the 6Cities project.
- Benjamin Strauss
- Works at Climate Central
- Scott Kulp
- Works at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany)
- Anders Leverman
- Works at Physics Institute of Potsdam University (Germany)
What are the main findings or arguments presented in the article or report?- Without considering the WAIS collapse (baseline), 414 cities in the US will have high tide lines where over 50% of the population lives below.
- The triggered case study (considering the WAIS collapse) found 604 cities with the same situation.
- In the case of no changes and increased emissions:
- "through 2100 (RCP 8.5) lead to similar final results under either Antarctic case, with 1,544 or 1,596 municipalities, respectively, committed at 50% (union of confidence intervals, 1,185–1,825), affecting land that is home to current populations of 26.3 or 27.4 million people (union of intervals 20.6–32.1 million)"
- Long term predictions become balanced because at that point the impact of the high emissions on the normal glacial melting is equivalent to the impact of the WAIS.
- In the case of massive decreases in carbon emissions:
- "can lead to the avoidance of commitment for nearly 900 US municipalities, and, more broadly, for land that is home to 15.8 million people in the baseline case, using central estimates, and for nearly 400 municipalities and land that is home for 6.6 million people assuming WAIS collapse"
- There is a massive difference in the number of municipalities under the high tide line, by only decreasing carbon emissions a little (by changing from RCP 8.5 to RCP 6.0).
- Florida, California, Louisiana, and New York have the most people living in danger of their homes being below the high tide line.
Describe at least three ways that the argument is supported.- The argument is supported with the comparison of intensity of carbon cuts (from zero cuts to drastic) on the sea-level rise, and therefore community impact. The view on how different amounts of carbon reduction efforts affect a city display what events policy makers can prevent and lessen.
- The research referenced also supports the argument that carbon emissions lead to temperature change and then sea level rise.
- The descriptive tables with municipalities listed, with their population, estimated emissions, 'commitment year,' and committed SLR.
What three (or more) quotes capture the message of the article or report?- "Paleontological records indicate that global mean sea level is highly sensitive to temperature (7) and that ice sheets, the most important contributors to large-magnitude sea-level change, can respond to warming on century time scales (8), while models suggest ice sheets require millennia to approach equilibrium (9). Accordingly, sustained temperature increases from current emissions are expected to translate to long-term sea-level rise (SLR)."
- "Here we develop relationships between cumulative carbon emissions and longterm sea-level commitment and explore implications for the future of coastal developments in the United States. The results offer a new way to compare different emissions scenarios or policies and suggest that the long-term viability of hundreds of coastal municipalities and land currently inhabited by tens of millions of persons hang in the balance"
- "For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts."
- "Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. "
What were the methods, tools and/or data used to produce the claims or arguments made in the article or report?- "Committed" or "locked in" warming during a year: unavoidable warming/sea level rise based on the year's human produced carbon emissions and their assessed long-term impact, with or without intervention by carbon cuts.
- To approximate temperature rise:
- Linear relationship between carbon emissions and temperature rise: "use 0.7–2.0 °C [rise per 1,000 gigatons of carbon], the 90% likely range from Gillett et al."
- RCP: representative concentration pathways of carbon emissions (from the Gillett paper as well)
- "approximate cumulative emissions through 2015 as 560 GtC based on historical values and forecasts under RCP 8.5 (21, 22); for a special case we add 199 GtC to this total to represent the future expectation of emissions already implicit in the current global energy infrastructure (23)."
- To approximate sea-level rise (SLR):
- used methods by Levermann, et. al.
- Total SLR from "(i) ocean thermal expansion, based on six coupled climate models; (ii) mountain glacier and ice cap melting, based on surface mass balance and simplified ice dynamic models; (iii) Greenland ice sheet decay, based on a coupled regional climate model and ice sheet dynamic model; and (iv) Antarctic ice sheet decay, based on a continental-scale model parameterizing grounding line ice flux in relation to temperature."
- Adjustments to point iv, to have Antarctic ice melting relate to the temperature rise, T ( average global temperature rise), produces the lowest melted Antarctic volume for temperature increases of T or higher.
- To approximate glacier (WAIS) "collapse":
- WAIS = West Antarctic Ice Sheet, this study focuses on Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers
- "The baseline case includes the possibility of WAIS instability, depending upon emissions and warming; the triggered case differs only in enforcing collapse under any scenario at some time within Levermann et al.’s (10) 2,000-y envelope."
- Triggered: "employs a minor modification of the warming–SLR relationship"
- Baseline: "makes a major adjustment to explore an important possibility suggested by recent research, by assuming that an inevitable collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) already has been set in motion"
- To approximate effects on the communities:
- Spatial analysis of the SLR
- Find the high tide level, find the lines of elevation at which 25%, 50% and 100% of the population lives.
- Include topography and population numbers in analysis
How (if at all) are health disparities or other equity issues addressed in the article or report?- The health disparity issue addressed in this article is the difference in welfare between people who live in low-level, coastal areas and those who do not. The coastal communities and industries are "up to 4.6% of the global population and 9.3% of annual global gross domestic product [that will be threatened] with annual flooding by 2100 in the absence of adaptive measures."
- An equity problem within the report is the census data about those who live/work in these coastal regions. The data now does not properly address who will be affected by 2100. However, it represents how much those people's lives would be impacted if carbon cuts were not made and if they were not able to relocate.
Where has this article or report been referenced or discussed? (In some journals, you can see this in a sidebar.)- I have seen this study discussed in the context of news for specific cities, like New Orleans, NYC, and Miami. Most citations are in news sources and blogs. The news articles describe the impact of a specific city or the impact on the US as a whole.
Can you learn anything from the article or report’s bibliography that tells us something about how the article or report was produced?- Cited are many reports on climate change, from the US and UK.
- Many reports on Antarctica and Greenland, and their melting glaciers
- Others report on other modeling efforts of sea level rise.
- Interesting reference: "Levermann et al. (10) found a roughly linear global mean sealevel increase of 2.3 m per 1 °C warming within a time-envelope of the next 2,000 [years]"
- The efforts in this study were to find the short term and long term effects of the warming earth specifically on coastal areas.
What three points, details or references from the text did you follow up on to advance your understanding of how air pollution science has been produced and used in governance and education in different settings?Does the article provide information or perspective on any of the thematics already identified as important for the 6Cities project?